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Page last updated: 04/04/2016
"Financial panics can only begin when faith in the security of a financial system is dashed. No one should be surprised by the market going up today. The FED has put its whole credibility on the line. They have said they will not raise rates until the economy improves. So . . . if you have faith in the power of the goverment to control the economy, then you have faith that the FED will engineer a recovery and that the markets will go up. The only way this market will go down severely is when faith is destroyed. I, personally, do not WANT this faith to be destroyed because it would lead to a sharp economic downturn. But in my heart I believe the faith in the FED will be severely challenged over the next couple of years. Whether this will be a gradual erosion of faith or a sharp drop in faith is not yet clear to me. But if you believe, as I do, that cheap credit cannot overcome the problems of 1) overcapacity 2) misallocation of resources and 3) a lack of savings and investment and 4) an unsustainable trade deficit then it is only a matter of time before the faith that the public and traders and wallstreet have in the Fed is dashed. The long term bearish scenario is not one based on a desire for collective pain, instead it is a belief that faith in the Fed is simply misplaced and overhyped." BostonBear, October 29, 2003
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