|
Puetz Crash Windows In 2003
BearSmith - Mon, May 5, 2003 - 12:44 AM
For those out there who watched the Puetz windows in 01 and 02, they we're pretty interesting.
Puetz work evaluated market crashes to solar eclipses and termed the window to be around the full moons within 6 weeks of a solar eclipse.
In 01, June 21 (solar eclipse) and July 05 (full moon and lunar eclipse): We know what happened after July 01, which lead into the Sept 01 low.
In 02, June 10 (solar eclipse) and June 24 (full moon and lunar eclipse). We all know what happened in July.
For the Dec. 04 (solar eclipse), nothing happended, probably because the markets were in recovery mode from the July/Oct lows. The markets need time to cycle you know.
In 03, there will be a solar eclipse on May 31, which makes the full moons on June 15 and July 13 suspect to Puetz window. Since the market appears to be in recovery mode from the March lows (which was not that low, but was perceived as a low), I think the actual LT high will be within 6 weeks of the May 31 solar eclipse (probably mid to late June, IMO), and I don't think the May 31 event will involve any sort of low, but rather, a high (a high of extreme over-optimism and uphoria, that we are now seeing in progress). This extreme over-optimish will take a little time to quelch.
Later in 03, there will be a solar eclipse on Nov 23. This sets Oct 10, Nov 9, and Dec. 8 full moons as potential Puetz window crash timelines. Nov 9 is also a lunar eclipse.
Nov 22 also corresponds to a very important Bradley turn date. A major spike down really getting started on Nov 9 could finish around Nov 22.
Not that I only look at this type of stuff, but I do when it correlates with the LT ebb and flow of the markets.
I'm thinking that Nov 22 could be a very important low for 03, to correspoind with the bottom of the 3 of 3 of 3 of 3 waves as predicted by wavers. However, I think most waver's timelines are off and this is where ewave falls short, on timing.
The above would also require extreme patience by most bears and a longer term vision to buy further out PUTs (I'm now looking at Dec.).
The above is just some of my strategy and not a trading recommendation.
Cheers to you Puetzers. BearSmith
http://www.spiritoftruth.org/novcrash.htm
| Return to Board Index |
|
|
|
Puetz Crash Windows In 2003
BearSmith - Mon, May 5, 2003 - 12:44 AM
|
|
